Due to corrected weather forecasts, the front year in gas lost value in mid-November, in some cases significantly. Driven by surprisingly cool temperatures and rising spot market prices, however, the gas price rose again towards the end of the month and was able to make up for the losses.
The front year in electricity was quite different. Driven by stable demand and positive forecasts for a Covid-19 vaccine, the base contract increased by more than 5 €/MWh in November.
More than 3/4 of all tips in the enmacc market sentiment correctly predicted this development, a strong result of the participants! The remaining tips were too bearish.
The German power front year continued its bearish trend in October. Demand is still low and the lockdown light discussed in October pushed prices further down. Other commodities such as oil, coal and CO2 certificates also continued to fall in October.
The front year in gas, on the other hand, remained largely stable, and a strong increase was even recorded on the spot market. Participants in the enmacc market sentiment assumed that gas prices would also fall more sharply, which led to a relatively high proportion of tips that were too bearish. In 66% of all tips, however, the participants again demonstrated a very good feeling for the market and correctly predicted the trend.
Overall, German electricity consumption seems to slowly return to normal. However, there is no drastic jump in demand and commodity prices, in general, remain pretty stable.
In the second half of the month, German power front year still won around 3 EUR/MWh. This was also driven by rising CO2 prices. Also, Hurricane Laura reduced the gas and oil output in the US.
The participants of the enmacc market sentiment apparently underestimated the rise of prices towards the end of the month which resulted in around 33% of the tips being too bearish.
We congratulate the market sentiment winners in August on their correct predictions!
2x Markus Eberl – Stadtwerke Augsburg Energie GmbH 2x Alexander Knorn – FairEnergie GmbH 2x Marion Witthuhn – E.ON Energie Deutschland GmbH
Micha Abele – FairEnergie GmbH Oliver Bodenmüller – Stadtwerke Karlsruhe GmbH Mark Doenau – MITGAS Mitteldeutsche Gasversorgung GmbH Thomas Engelhardt – TEAG Thüringer Energie AG Jürg Furter – Eniwa AG Josephine Hantschmann – envia Mitteldeutsche Energie AG Stefan Hausammann – Eniwa AG Mario Hilmer – ZVO Energie GmbH Thomas Klein – Stadtwerke Bayreuth Energie und Wasser GmbH Lena Letzner – EHA Energie-Handels-Gesellschaft mbH & Co. KG Markus Möller – Energieversorgung Mittelrhein AG Brigitte Reintinger – N-ERGIE Aktiengesellschaft Peter Schumann – Energieversorgung Mittelrhein AG Wilko vom Hagen – FairEnergie GmbH Franziska Zimmer – Montana
The €750 billion EU rescue package has also stabilised the commodity markets. Crude oil and CO2 prices have risen in recent weeks and have also driven the price of German electricity in the front year.
Some traders have now realised these gains and thus caused a slight price decline again. However, all this took place in a relatively narrow price range.
All in all, the participants of the enmacc market sentiment in July showed a high accuracy: almost 80% of participants gave correct estimations.
We congratulate the market sentiment winners in July on their correct predictions!
3x Karlheinz Berns – ZVO Energie GmbH 3x Mark Doenau – MITGAS Mitteldeutsche Gasversorgung GmbH
2x Torsten Bostelmann – TEAG Thüringer Energie AG 2x Jörg Stockhecke – Stadtwerke Bielefeld GmbH
Evgenij Bessanov – ENNI Energie und Umwelt Niederrhein GmbH Oliver Bodenmüller – Stadtwerke Karlsruhe GmbH Thomas Engelhardt – TEAG Thüringer Energie AG Josephine Hantschmann – envia Mitteldeutsche Energie AG Stefan Hausammann – Eniwa AG Uwe Hillig – Stadtwerke Konstanz GmbH Alexander Knorn – FairEnergie GmbH Jörg Kruse – ENNI Energie und Umwelt Niederrhein GmbH Arndt Metzmacher – N-ERGIE Aktiengesellschaft Patrick Niemeyer – Kooperationsgesellschaft fränkischer Elektrizitätswerke mbH Markus Oelsner – Energie Südbayern GmbH Thomas Osthues – Stadtwerke Bochum GmbH Christoph Paschke – EWV Energie- und Wasser-Versorgung GmbH Dennis Pastor – Stadtwerke Rostock AG Heinrich Peng – Technische Betriebe Glarus Nord Johanna Stäsch – Stadtwerke Marburg GmbH Marcel Straub – Thüga Energie GmbH Norman Vogel – KES Kommunale Energiedienstleistungsgesellschaft mbH Marion Witthuhn – E.ON Energie Deutschland GmbH
The front year in NCGH moved sideways. The volatility at this part of the curve seems to slow down. The Phelix DE front year, though, presented itself more bullish and could win around 4 €/MWh throughout June.
It is remarkable that on none of the days the participants of the enmarket market sentiment voted too bullish. 64% of the votes hit the correct trend, the rest predicted the market to be more bearish.
We congratulate the market sentiment winners in June on their correct predictions!
3x Henry Mager – TEAG Thüringer Energie AG
2x Claas Sieveneck – rhenag Rheinische Energie AG
Mauro Balletta – Energieplattform AG Karlheinz Berns – ZVO Energie GmbH Christoph Beyer – Stadtwerke Homburg GmbH Sebastian Biswas – Energieplattform AG Oliver Bodenmüller – Stadtwerke Karlsruhe GmbH Torsten Bostelmann – TEAG Thüringer Energie AG Bianca Both – innogy SE Henrik Brieke – Stadtwerke Herne AG Markus Eberl – Stadtwerke Augsburg Energie GmbH Thomas Engelhardt – TEAG Thüringer Energie AG Stefan Hausammann – Eniwa AG Markus Klünder – Vereinigte Stadtwerke GmbH Lena Letzner – EHA Energie-Handels-Gesellschaft mbH & Co. KG Arndt Metzmacher – N-ERGIE Aktiengesellschaft Peter Nicklaus – Stadtwerke Schweinfurt GmbH Elisabeth Schwarz – EHA Energie-Handels-Gesellschaft mbH & Co. KG Darius Stellmach – Stadtwerke Bielefeld GmbH Carsten Theede – Energie Südbayern GmbH Ralf Zenhäusern – Lonza AG Franziska Zimmer – Montana